Previsão de resultados de nado peito e borboleta na natação com base na história das Olimpíadas

Editor's Note: Illustrative image. British swimmer Adam Peaty: defying statistics. Source: SS PRESS - SATIRO SODRÉ


  • Maciej Hołub Institute of Sport Sciences, Jerzy Kukuczka Academy of Physical Education, Poland
  • Arkadiusz Stanula Institute of Sport Sciences, Jerzy Kukuczka Academy of Physical Education, Poland
  • Jakub Baron Institute of Sport Sciences, Jerzy Kukuczka Academy of Physical Education, Poland
  • Wojciech Głyk Institute of Sport Sciences, Jerzy Kukuczka Academy of Physical Education, Poland
  • Thomas Rosemann Institute of Primary Care, University of Zurich, Switzerland
  • Beat Knechtle Institute of Primary Care, University of Zurich, Switzerland - Medbase St. Gallen Am Vadianplatz, Switzerland


Natação, Performance Atlética, Nado Peito, Nado Borboleta, Análise, Jogos Olímpicos


Aqui descrevemos variações históricas no desempenho olímpico de nado peito e borboleta e prevemos os resultados da natação para os Jogos Olímpicos de 2021 em Tóquio. Foram analisados ​​os resultados dos finalistas, vencedores e últimos participantes das finais femininas e masculinas e criado um modelo matemático preditivo. Foram apresentados os tempos previstos para as futuras Olimpíadas. O desempenho da natação entre os atletas olímpicos tem melhorado constantemente, com tempos recordes de 18,51 s para as finalistas femininas nos 100 m borboleta (uma melhoria de 24,63%) e 31,33 s para os finalistas masculinos nos 200 m borboleta (21,44%). Os resultados em todos os grupos analisados ​​mostraram melhora no desempenho atlético e a diferença entre os finalistas diminuiu. O desempenho das mulheres olímpicas melhorou mais rapidamente do que o dos homens, reduzindo a disparidade entre os gêneros. Concluímos que o desempenho da natação entre os atletas olímpicos continua a melhorar.

Nota do Editor: Imagem ilustrativa. O nadador britânico Adam Peaty: desafiando as estatísticas. Fonte: SS PRESS - SATIRO SODRÉ


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Artigo adaptado e traduzido para o português pelos editores de NADAR! SWIMMING MAGAZINE para republicação, conforme normas de submissão do periódico. Versão original em: LICENÇA ORIGINAL E DA ADAPTAÇÃO: OBS.: Errata em:



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Hołub M, Stanula A, Baron J, Głyk W, Rosemann T, Knechtle B. Previsão de resultados de nado peito e borboleta na natação com base na história das Olimpíadas. Nadar! Swim Mag [Internet]. 16º de fevereiro de 2024 [citado 25º de julho de 2024];4(167):e167-79. Disponível em: